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09KYIV1767, KYIV: B1B2 VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS-OVERSTAYS UP

October 14, 2009

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09KYIV1767 2009-10-14 11:23 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Kyiv

VZCZCXRO9661
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKV #1767 2871123
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141123Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8582
RUEHPNH/NVC PORTSMOUTH 0037
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS KYIV 001767 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR CA/FPP (BILLINGSR), CA/VO/F/P, DS/CR/VG, EUR/UMB, G/TIP 
DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC 
DHS FOR CIS/FDNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS KFRD CPAS CMGT ASEC UP
SUBJECT:  KYIV: B1B2 VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS-OVERSTAYS UP 
 
1. (U) Summary: Embassy Kyiv concluded a validation study of B1/B2 
visas issued between June 1, 2007 and May 31, 2008. During this time 
period, Post issued 21,331 B1/B2 visas. The validation study showed 
a total overstay rate of 4 percent, with a 3.8 percent margin of 
error. The study was intended to track overstay trends in comparison 
with Post's previous B1/B2 validation study, which was conducted on 
applicants issued from December 1, 2006, through May 31, 2007. The 
prior study showed a total overstay rate of 2.7 percent. Thus, Post 
experienced an increase in the B1/B2 overstay rate, although the 
increase was within the margin of error for the statistical sample. 
End summary. 
 
SAMPLE, DATA COLLECTION, AND METHODOLOGY 
 
2. (U) Post conducted its validation study on 1289 randomly selected 
applicants from the pool of 21,331 B1/B2 issuances from June 1, 2007 
to May 31, 2008. Post submitted the sample group to CA/FPP for 
computer verification of entry/exit records. In 112 cases (nine 
percent), computer records showed no travel by the applicant. Post 
verified the presence in Ukraine of 93 of these applicants through 
phone calls, and could not verify the location of the remaining 19. 
For the analyzed period, Post refused approximately 13,004 B1/B2 
applications, for a refusal rate of 38 percent.  The study was 
conducted with a 95 percent confidence rate and a margin of error of 
3.8 percent. 
 
RESULTS 
 
3. (U) As of September 1, 2009, Post confirmed that 4 percent (58 
out of the 1289 in the sample) of applicants issued during the study 
period stayed in the United States. Virtually all of these overstays 
(48 out of 58) were "illegal" overstays, meaning the applicants in 
question did not adjust status. The remaining 10 adjusted to LPR 
status, F1 status, or were pending an adjustment at the conclusion 
of the period covered by the verification study . 
 
4. (U) The 4 percent overstay rate reflects a slight increase over 
the rate from the previous B1/B2 validation study, which was 
conducted on applicants issued from December 1, 2006 through May 31, 
2007. The prior study showed a total overstay rate of 2.7 percent, 
with a 1.8 percent "illegal" to overstay rate. However, the increase 
is within the margin of error for the statistical sample. 
 
PROFILE OF TRAVELERS WHO OVERSTAYED 
 
5. (U) Post reports the following characteristics concerning the 
B1/B2 travelers who stayed in the United States. 
 
Top destinations for travelers who overstayed: 
 
New York  24 percent 
Illinois  14 percent 
California 10 percent 
Florida   7 percent 
New Jersey  5 percent 
 
Top occupations of travelers who overstayed: 
 
Students  16 percent 
Retired  14 percent 
 
Purpose of travel for travelers who overstayed: 
 
Business    28 percent 
Visit Amcit relatives 28 percent 
Visit friends   16 percent 
Tourism    10 percent 
Visit LPR relatives   9 percent 
Conference    5 percent 
 
 
6. (U) Given the relatively small number of overstays, Post cannot 
make strong generalizations about patterns in overstay cases. 
However, the results provide some useful information about the 
characteristics of applicants who overstay, and will prove helpful 
as we continue to analyze and understand the Ukrainian applicant 
pool. 
 
PETTIT

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