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09KYIV1556, OUR UKRAINE” LEADER GIVES INSIGHT INTO

September 11, 2009

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09KYIV1556 2009-09-11 15:39 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Kyiv

VZCZCXRO3626
PP RUEHDBU RUEHSL
DE RUEHKV #1556/01 2541539
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111539Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8393
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1897

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001556 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UP
SUBJECT: "OUR UKRAINE" LEADER GIVES INSIGHT INTO 
YUSHCHENKO'S NEXT MOVE 
 
REF: KYIV 1438 
 
Classified By: CDA James Pettit for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) During a meeting with Charge, "Our Ukraine" leader 
Roman Bezsmertniy discussed the January 2010 presidential 
election and the amended law that will govern it, President 
Yushchenko's plans, and the future of the party.  Most 
surprising was his assertion that Yushchenko would drop out 
of the presidential race around December 2009.  Yushchenko 
would focus instead on building a team for the (as yet 
unscheduled) parliamentary election, from which Bezsmirtniy 
"guaranteed" that Yushchenko would emerge as Prime Minister. 
Bezsmertniy foresees a court battle between PM Tymoshenko and 
Party of Regions head Yanukovych over the results of the 
presidential election.  Bezsmertniy's main message was that 
while "Our Ukraine" has lost popularity, it is still a viable 
party and would secure 8 - 9% of the seats in the next 
parliamentary election.  End Summary. 
 
 
We're sick, but we're not dead 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) During a September 9 meeting with Charge, "Our 
Ukraine" Acting Chairman of the Central Executive Committee, 
Roman Bezsmertniy, was realistic about President Yushchenko's 
inability to win the January 2010 presidential election. 
However, he remained optimistic about the party's ability to 
get 8 - 9% of the seats in the next (as yet unscheduled) 
parliamentary election.  He also "guaranteed" that he could 
make Yushchenko Prime Minister again.  Bezsmertniy conceded 
that Our Ukraine had "destroyed" itself.  He blamed 
Yushchenko's inability to push through constitutional reform 
as the main reason for the party's loss of popularity.  He 
told us that Yushchenko would begin his campaign but drop out 
of the presidential race around December and let Tymoshenko 
and Yanukovych duke it out.  According to Bezsmertniy, once 
the presidency is decided, the victor would fire many 
bureaucrats, whom Yushchenko would then recruit for the 
eventual parliamentary election. 
 
"Corporate Fascism" Rules Ukrainian Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3. (C) With reference to the recently amended election law, 
Bezsmertniy called the current system of governance 
"corporate fascism."  Rada members have no independence to 
legislate, but make decisions based solely on what their 
party leaders -- particularly PM Tymoshenko (BYuT) and Party 
of Regions (PoR) head Yanukovych -- tell them to do.  He 
blamed this state of affairs on the electoral system of 
Ukraine -- and on the absence of a developed civil society, 
which would demand more from elected leaders. 
 
Post-Election Court Battle? 
--------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Bezsmertniy contended that while Yanukovych would 
likely win the presidential vote, Tymoshenko would not 
concede the election and would take it to courts over which 
she has influence.  He told us that the amended Presidential 
election law was drafted in such a way to allow either main 
candidate to have the election invalidated if he or she is 
displeased with the result.  While the battle rages in the 
courts, Yushchenko would remain in the presidency and push 
forward with constitutional reforms, Bezsmertniy predicted. 
 
Our Ukraine Remains Viable 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Party leaders are focused on revitalization and 
strengthening oblast (regional) headquarters, after which 
they will focus on raion (municipal) and city headquarters, 
Bezsmirtniy said.  They are working with the National 
Democratic Institute (NDI) to restructure party management 
and communication mechanisms to give party members more input 
into decision-making. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C) All available polling indicates that Yushchenko has 
little or no chance of winning the presidential election. 
Bezsmertniy's conviction that Yushchenko will pull out thus 
makes sense if the President wants to avoid an embarrassing 
result and, possibly, stage a comeback as a future PM. 
 
KYIV 00001556  002 OF 002 
 
 
Bezsmertniy's prediction that the election will be marked by 
drama and court battles between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych is 
not universally shared, even within "Our Ukraine."   Recently 
signed amendments to the election law -- unless reversed by 
the Constitutional Court -- restrict the opportunities for 
court appeal.   Bezsmirtniy's scenario, with Yushchenko 
remaining in power in the interregnum, appears to be wishful 
thinking. 
PETTIT

Wikileaks

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