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08KYIV2211, TYMOSHENKO CONTINUES TO PUSH ORANGE COALITION

November 7, 2008

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08KYIV2211 2008-11-07 07:26 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Kyiv

VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKV #2211 3120726
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 070726Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6692
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002211 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO CONTINUES TO PUSH ORANGE COALITION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1. (C) Prime Minister Tymoshenko continues to push for a 
renewed Orange coalition.  She believes President Yushchenko 
will block any new coalition and maintain his pursuit of 
early parliamentary elections in the hope of reaching a deal 
with the Party of Regions (Regions) to secure a second term 
in office.  Tymoshenko's solution for the political impasse 
is a revived coalition of BYuT and OU-PSD, joined by the 
Lytvyn bloc.  Her scenario would have Volodymyr Lytvyn as 
Rada Speaker, with current Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk 
replacing Viktor Baloha as Yushchenko's chief of staff.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
PURSUING A NEW ORANGE COALITION 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko told the Ambassador 
during a November 5 meeting that her eponymous bloc (BYuT) 
was still pushing for a renewed Orange coalition in the Rada. 
 She said that a revived coalition of BYuT, President 
Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) bloc, 
and former Rada speaker Lytvyn's bloc is vital to addressing 
the current financial crisis in Ukraine.  She claimed Lytvyn 
is eager to join a new coalition and so are 40 of 72 OU-PSD 
MPs.  Tymoshenko believes OU-PSD faction leader Vyecheslav 
Kyrylenko, on orders from Yushchenko, is refusing to call an 
official faction meeting to vote on renewing the coalition. 
She said that "everyone" needs to convince Yushchenko to 
rejoin a coalition with BYuT plus Lytvyn. 
 
3. (C) Tymoshenko said that a new Orange coalition would 
require some personnel changes.  Rada Speaker Yatsenyuk 
should replace Viktor Baloha as Yushchenko's chief of staff 
and Lytvyn should return to the speaker's chair.  Tymoshenko 
said that Yatsenyuk is willing to take on a new role and that 
only Lytvyn has the experience needed to handle the Rada 
during this difficult time period. 
 
 
A NEW RADA WILL BE DANGEROUS 
---------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Tymoshenko told the Ambassador that there was only a 
fifty percent chance that a new Rada would turn out well. 
Only a renewed Orange coalition could push forward 
euro-atlantic integration and resist integration into the 
Russian-backed Single Economic Space.  She said Yushchenko 
wants "elections, elections, elections, but that just leads 
to chaos."  Tymoshenko vowed "I won't let them hold 
elections."  Ambassador cautioned her to stay within legal, 
constitutional, and democratic bounds. 
 
 
YUSHCHENKO'S PLAN FOR ANOTHER TERM 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Yushchenko is working with Regions to ensure himself a 
second presidential term, according to Tymoshenko. 
Yushchenko wants early Rada elections so that he can form a 
"grand" coalition that would include a bloc under his 
leadership, Regions, Lytvyn, and the Communists.  He believes 
this coalition would have the 300 votes needed to modify the 
constitution in order to strengthen the presidency and elect 
the president in the Rada rather than in a popular vote. 
Tymoshenko said that Regions has told Yushchenko that they 
would back him for a second term in office under this plan. 
Yushchenko was not strong enough to control Regions and they 
would probably renege on their promise to support his second 
term.  She said that after the constitutional changes are 
made, Regions will elect former Prime Minister and Regions 
party head Viktor Yanukovych as president.  She believed that 
forming a coalition with Regions and the Communists would be 
the end of Yushchenko's political career. 
 
 
6. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. 
TAYLOR

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