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October 16, 2007

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07KYIV2588 2007-10-16 12:36 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Kyiv

DE RUEHKV #2588/01 2891236
P 161236Z OCT 07

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002588 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017 
KYIV 00002588  001.2 OF 002 
Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d). 
1. (SBU) Summary.  The Central Election Commission announced 
the official election results late on October 15, which 
triggers the next steps in seating the new Rada and then the 
formation of a government.  The CEC must promulgate the 
results within 5 days, the Rada must open within 30 days 
after promulgation, and the new coalition formed within 30 
days from the Rada opening.  A group of deputies from the new 
Rada (representing each of the factions that successfully 
made it into the Rada) will meet within ten days of the 
promulgation of the final results to determine the opening 
session date -- always a Tuesday; once the Rada members take 
their seats, a presidium of five representatives from each of 
the factions will run the Rada proceedings until a Speaker is 
elected.  BYuT leader Tymoshenko and OU-PSD leaders Lutsenko 
and Kyrylenko signed a preliminary coalition agreement on the 
steps of the Presidential Secretariat immediately after the 
CEC announced the final results and said some major 
differences had been resolved.  Nevertheless, they must still 
come to agreement on the finer points of some key laws and 
reconcile the part of the Our Ukraine that dislikes 
Tymoshenko, if the orange coalition is to be successful and 
Tymoshenko is to get the premiership.  To this end, 
Tymoshenko told the press that they would like the Lytvyn 
Bloc to join the coalition, which would give them an 
additional 20 seats to bolster their razor thin three-seat 
majority of 228. 
2. (C) Comment.  We would not be surprised if these timelines 
slip a bit -- as they did in 2006 when coalition negotiations 
dragged on for months -- if the orange team cannot work out 
all the details of its cooperation.  If all involved parties 
adhere to the legally-mandated timeline, the Rada should hold 
its first session no later than November 13 (although it 
could be November 6 or even October 30 if things moved along 
quickly) and a coalition formed within 30 days after that 
(approximately December 13 -- or earlier if the Rada convenes 
on November 6 or October 30).  A decision by the Lytvyn Bloc 
to join BYuT and OU-PSD could speed things up because it 
would form a more stable 248-member majority.  If Lytvyn Bloc 
stays neutral, as it has indicated is its preference, 
negotiations with those in Our Ukraine opposed to Tymoshenko 
and with Regions could drag on until mid-December.  Bottom 
line is that a coalition agreement signed now is no guarantee 
of either an agreed orange coalition in the Rada or the 
premiership for Yuliya Tymoshenko.  End summary and comment. 
CEC Announces Results, Clock Starts on Rada Formation 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
3. (SBU) The CEC announced the official results of the 
September 30 elections late on October 15.  Neither the vote 
count nor the seat allocation changed between the preliminary 
and final results: Regions - 34.37% (175 seats), BYuT - 
30.71% (156 seats), OU-PSD - 14.15% (72 seats), Communists - 
5.39% (27), and Lytvyn Bloc - 3.96% (20 seats).  The CEC now 
has 5 days to promulgate the election results.  This in turn 
will start the clock on seating the new Rada, which must hold 
its first session within 30 days of the promulgation of 
results.  The only other legal delay could be more court 
challenges.  Socialist Party representative Valentyna 
Semenyuk told the press that they have five days to challenge 
the results in the High Arbitrage Court.  (Note.  The 
Socialists already appealed the election to the High 
Administrative Court, but the Court chose not to hear the 
case.  End note.) 
4. (SBU) The Rada will be convened by former Speaker Moroz, 
either at the request of the President or by no less than one 
third of the new MPs.  First, the previous Speaker (or the 
First Deputy Speaker in his absence) should organize a 
preparatory group consisting of newly-elected MPs -- each 
faction nominates one MP to the group for every 15 MPs in its 
faction, meaning that Regions and BYuT will have the largest 
delegations -- to set the date and the agenda for the Rada's 
opening session.  This group should meet no later than 10 
days after the promulgation of the election results.  If the 
Speaker does not do convene the group, the new MPs nominated 
to the group can convene the meeting themselves. 
5. (SBU) At the fist Rada session, generally on a Tuesday, 
the MPs will take their oath of office, read by the oldest MP 
(by our count this will be Communist Ivan Herasymov). 
President Yushchenko will give a speech, and the Rada will 
begin tackling a number of administrative issues, including 
assigning committees and electing a Speaker.  The 
constitution mandates that after the opening of the Rada, a 
coalition must be formed within 30 days.  This suggests that 
if all sides stick to the legally-dictated timeline, and if 
KYIV 00002588  002.2 OF 002 
the CEC results are promulgated on October 20, there should 
be a Rada no later than November 13 (30 days actually expires &#x000A
;on November 19, but since that is Monday the last possible 
Tuesday session would be November 13) and a coalition no 
later than December 13.  Election of the Speaker is not 
mandated to happen at a specific time, but traditionally has 
been the new Rada's first order of business.  Until a Speaker 
is elected, a temporary 5-member presidium made up of the MP 
who chaired the preparatory group and representatives of the 
top four vote-getting Rada factions (meaning everyone but 
Lytvyn Bloc) will alternate running sessions on a rotating 
day-by-day basis, as happened in 2006. 
Orange Coalition Ready to Go 
6. (SBU) Following the CEC's announcement, Tymoshenko, 
Lutsenko, and Kyrylenko emerged from a two-hour meeting with 
the President and "preliminarily" signed a coalition 
agreement on the steps of the Presidential Secretariat. 
According to OU leader Kyrylenko, the formal coalition 
agreement will be signed on the opening day at the Rada. 
Tymoshenko told the press that they would like to see the 
Lytvyn Bloc in the coalition to form a more stable majority, 
but the ball was in Lytvyn's court.  (Note.  Lytvyn's press 
secretary said October 16 that the Lytvyn Bloc was not 
conducting negotiations with anyone about coalitions.  End 
7. (SBU) Kyrylenko also said that the two parties had reached 
agreement on amendments to the two most controversial laws - 
the CabMin law and the law on the status of MPs.  He added 
that OU-PSD wants a law on the opposition acceptable to both 
the opposition and the government.  Tymoshenko said that 
among the first laws the new Rada convocation will consider 
will be a law on preterm elections of the Kyiv City Council 
and Mayor.   In addition, the two blocs and the President 
discussed laws on imperative mandate for Rada members and the 
powers of governors.  Lutsenko said the agreement with all of 
its appendices will be made public on October 17. 
8. (C) Comment.  Many of these finer details, such as whether 
BYuT will be allowed to name governors, will be very 
contentious.  Both blocs owe a lot of political favors to 
constitute members and there is a fight for positions.  In 
addition, Tymoshenko is naturally loathe to give back any 
powers to the President that Yanukovych already successfully 
wrested away, and Yushchenko does not want to share any of 
his remaining powers with the new Prime Minister.   There has 
not yet been any comment from President Yushchenko regarding 
the signing of this coalition agreement.  End comment. 
Regions Not Giving Up 
9. (SBU)  The Party of Regions issued a statement on its 
website that a coalition that reflects the will of the 
maximum number of Ukrainians possible should be formed in the 
new Rada, but the proposed orange coalition split the 
country, with "irresponsible politicians putting their 
ambitions above the national interest."  Regions also stated 
its intention to do everything possible to form the 
coalition.  Regions MP Miroshnychenko said in a television 
interview that announcements of an orange coalition were 
premature because there were many steps to go through in 
seating a new Rada before a coalition could be announced.  He 
added that the possibility of 150 Regions MPs not taking 
their seats could still not be ruled out, a precedent, he 
said, started by the orange team in the previous Rada.  He 
said the party would consider it if the orange camp continued 
to violate legal and constitutional norms and ignored all the 
voters who did not vote for BYuT or OU.  MP Chornovil said 
that Regions will initiate coalition negotiations with BYuT 
and OU-PSD beginning in mid-November.  He added that the 
orange camp's announcement on October 15 was only related to 
the intention to form a coalition, but not the actual 
10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: 




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