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06KIEV2296, UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY’S (JUNE 14)

June 13, 2006

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06KIEV2296 2006-06-13 16:04 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Kyiv
VZCZCXRO7481
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2296 1641604
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131604Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KIEV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9874
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

 

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIEV 002296 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14) 
RADA SESSION 

REF: KIEV 2281 

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 

Summary 
------- 

1. (C) With no Orange coalition formed as of 1800 local time, 
two aides to senior Orange politicians have told us that the 
Party of Regions may essentially take charge of the coalition 
formation process at the June 14 Rada session.  According to 
our interlocutors, Communist MP Martynyuk, who is slated to 
chair tomorrow's session, will likely call for a vote on 
amending the Rada's rules for electing a new Speaker.  Our 
contacts, echoing what Yuliya Tymoshenko told the DCM on June 
12 (reftel), claimed that the Party of Regions had enough 
defectors from the Orange camp to win the vote.  Martynyuk, 
in this scenario, would then call for a sec ret, paper ballot 
vote for a new Rada speaker.  Regions would then try to form 
a so-called "alternative inter-factional majority" with the 
Orange defectors and the Communists, though legal experts 
have asserted that such a coalition would be 
unconstitutional.  End summary. 

With No Orange Coalition (Yet)... 
--------------------------------- 

2. (SBU) As of 1800 local time, and with no announcement of 
an Orange coalition, a senior aide to Our Ukraine's point man 
in the coalition talks, Roman Bezsmertny, and a longtime aide 
to Socialist Party (SP) leader Oleksandr Moroz have 
separately sketched for us a picture of what may occur when 
the Rada reconvenes on June 14. 

...Here's What May Happen At The Rada 
------------------------------------- 

3. (C) Echoing what Bloc Tymoshenko leader Yuliya Tymoshenko 
told the DCM on the evening of June 12 (reftel), our contacts 
predicted that Communist MP Adam Martynyuk, one of the five 
members of the Rada's provisional presidium, would chair the 
session.  Martynyuk would likely call for an immediate vote 
to amend Article 14 of the Rada's Rule of Procedures to 
permit the election of a new Speaker in the absence of a 
governing coalition.  Again echoing Tymoshenko, our 
interlocutors asserted that the Party of Regions had the 
votes to amend Article 14.  (Note: Tymoshenko's MP head count 
was 186 Regions, 21 Communists, 20 Our Ukraine from the 
Poroshenko and Kinakh factions, and 3 defectors from the SP.) 

4. (SBU) Our contacts asserted that if Article 14 was 
amended, Martynyuk would immediately call, in accordance with 
the Rada's rules, for a sec ret vote (by paper ballot) to 
elect a new Speaker.  Here our interlocutors diverged: 
Bezsmertny's aide predicted Regions MP Raisa Bohatyrova would 
get the Speaker's post, while Moroz' aide said her boss had 
been "promised" the job by Regions in return for joining a 
Regions/Communists/Orange Defectors alliance.  To further 
muddle things, Bohatyrova repeatedly told the press on June 
13 that Regions' leader Viktor Yanukovych may get the 
Speakership. 

5. (SBU) Our contacts would not speculate on anything beyond 
the election of a new Speaker at the June 14 session. 
However, the media are reporting that Regions, the Communists 
and the OU/SP defectors will attempt to form an "alternative 
inter-factional majority," though most legal experts contend 
that such a majority would be unconstitutional. 

Comment: Where Things Stand 
--------------------------- 

6. (C) Yushchenko, Bezsmertny and Prime Minister Yekhanurov 
apparently did meet sometime during the morning of June 13 
(reftel) and decided to give the Orange coalition talks with 
BYuT and the SP more time.  Foreign Minister Tarasyuk told 
Ambassador on June 13 that the troika was meeting during the 
afternoon, but that the Socialists remained adamant in their 
insistence on the Speakership for Moroz (septel).  As of 1800 
local time, though, those talks have reportedly produced no 
results, and Our Ukraine is publicly calling for all parties 
that won seats in the March parliamentary elections to gather 
at the negotiating table.  While we cannot predict what will 
happen tomorrow morning at the Rada, the scenario outlined by 
our interlocutors is one possible variant in what promises to 
be another eventful, even if not productive, day at the Rada. 
Taylor

Wikileaks

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